Simulated Impacts on Poverty in New York State of Health Insurance Policy Changes of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025

This new Robin Hood-funded report from the Marxe School of Public and International Affairs at Baruch College and the City University of New York (CUNY) Institute for Demographic Research simulates the impact on poverty in New York of major health insurance provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The simulations show the impact of these federal policy changes when fully phased in, before any state or local government policy response, and before any behavioral responses by affected individuals and households. Therefore, the simulations illustrate the size of policy and behavioral adjustments required to prevent poverty rates from rising in New York.

Once the approved changes take effect, absent concerted efforts by the state and municipalities to counteract them, poverty rates are likely to increase across New York State, with children, Medicaid recipients, Hispanics, Asians, and non-citizen immigrants being especially hard hit.